调查：84%信贷经理认为美国今年将陷入衰退 企业违约率将上升

Credit investors see defaults rising, 84% chance of US recession

据彭博社4月13日报道，国际信贷组合经理协会（IACPM）的一项调查显示，信贷投资组合经理们预测，未来一年企业违约率将上升，84%的受访者认为美国经济有可能在2023年陷入衰退。

Washington: Credit portfolio managers are forecasting a rise in corporate defaults in the coming year while more than four-out-of-five participants see a chance of a US recession in 2023, according to a survey by the International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers.

根据国际信贷组合管理协会(IACPM)的一项调查，信贷投资组合经理们预测，未来一年美企违约率将上升，超八成的受访者认为，美国有可能在2023年陷入衰退。

The poll found that 81 percent of fund managers see defaults picking up in the next 12 months, compared with 80 percent in the survey last December, as reduced bank liquidity and credit risk concerns land on top of macroeconomic issues. For North American corporates, 86 percent of respondents see defaults rising, while 91 percent see defaults rising in Europe.

调查发现，81%的基金经理认为未来12个月企业违约将加剧，而2022年12月的调查中这一比例为80%，原因是银行流动性减少，以及对信贷风险担忧成为宏观经济问题的首要因素。86%的受访者认为北美企业违约率将上升，而有91%的受访者认为欧洲企业违约率将上升。

“Our members have expected to see the impact of rising interest rates for some time and we’re beginning to see more credit stress and defaults in corporate borrowers now,” Som-lok Leung, IACPM’s executive director, wrote in a statement. “Unfortunately, this could take some time to work its way through the system.”

IACPM执行董事Som-lok Leung在一份声明中写道：“我们预计利率上升的影响将持续一段时间，现在我们开始看到企业借款人面临更多信贷压力和违约。不幸的是，这可能需要一段时间才能在系统中显现。”

Survey respondents are also predicting a recession in the US, with 84 percent expecting one to occur sometime this year. That’s higher than the 61 percent of participants who see a recession this year in Europe and the UK.

受访者还预计美国将出现衰退，84%的人预计今年某个时候美国经济会发生衰退。这一比例高于61%的受访者认为欧盟和英国经济今年将出现衰退。

IACPM survey participants see certain industries like health care, medium-sized tech companies and defense manufacturers facing tough times in the current environment. Commercial real estate was also cited, given work-from-home trends lowering office occupancy rates and property owners having to refinance in a higher interest rate environment.

IACPM调查参与者认为，医疗保健、中型科技公司和国防制造商等某些行业在当前环境下面临艰难时期;商业房地产也被认为是其中一员，因为居家办公的趋势降低了办公室占用率，业主不得不在更高的利率环境下进行再融资。

来源：彭博社