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气候变化——逃避
Annual UN climate summits are never moments of unbridled optimism,
每年一度的联合国气候峰会从来不是盲目乐观的时刻，
but this year's, held in Madrid and dubbed COP25, was particularly dispiriting. Its logo was a clock with its hands at a quarter to 12.
但今年在马德里举办的COP25联合国气候峰会尤其令人沮丧。其标志是一个指针指向十二点差一刻的钟。
Midnight duly passed on Friday December 13th—supposedly the summit's last day, and then again on Saturday.
12月13日周五，可能是峰会的最后一天，午夜准时过去了，然后周六又过去了。
Only on Sunday did delegates agree to weak and watered-down commitments to enact previously promised cuts in emissions of greenhouse gases.
到了周日，代表才同意在实施之前承诺的减少温室气体排放方面做出软弱无力的妥协。
And they deferred until next year a decision on regulating a new international carbon market.
他们还将是否建立一个新的国际碳市场的决定推迟到了明年。
In 2015, in Paris, nearly 200 countries promised to stop global warming
2015年，在巴黎，200个国家承诺
before average temperatures rose by more than 1.5-2°C above pre-industrial levels.
在全球平均气温较工业化水平上升1.5-2摄氏度之前阻止全球变暖。
Most climate scientists, though, admit privately that there is little hope of this.
虽然大部分气候科学家私下里承认，这几乎没有希望。
A coalition of governments including the European Union therefore came to Madrid demanding a strongly worded final text
因此，包括欧盟在内的一个政府联盟来到马德里，要求拿出一份措辞强硬的最终文本，
that would urge all countries to promise in 2020 to cut emissions further and faster than agreed so far. That text failed to materialise.
敦促所有国家承诺在2020年进一步、更快地削减碳排放。该文本未能成为现实。
In fact, the real effort on this front came from Brussels, where the EU's leaders, after some wrangling,事实上，在这方面真正的努力来自布鲁塞尔，在那里，欧盟领导人们经过一番争论后
committed themselves on December 12th to reducing emissions to "net zero" by 2050.
于12月12日做出承诺，到2050年将排放量减少到“零排放”。
This means any release of greenhouse gases thereafter will be balanced by the capture of such gases already in the atmosphere by, say, extra afforestation.
这意味着，今后任何温室气体的排放，都将通过额外的植树造林等措施来平衡大气中已经存在的温室气体的捕获。
The European Commission's presidency has published a comprehensive and ambitious,
欧盟委员会主席已为实现这一目标的措施，
if sometimes vague, proposal for measures that would achieve this goal.
发表了一份全面而雄心勃勃的提案，虽然内容模糊。
As part of it, an EU climate law enshrining the 2050 target will be put forward in the spring of2020.
作为措施的一部分，欧盟将在2020年春季提出一项规定2050年目标的气候法律。
Weak and watered-down commitments to enact cuts in emissions of greenhouse gases are nothing new.
制定削减温室气体排放的承诺力度不够并不是什么新鲜事。
What COP25 is really likely to be remembered for, though, is a failure to deal with carbon markets.
COP25真正让人铭记的可能是应对碳市场方面的失败。
Plans for such markets go back to a scheme created by the Kyoto protocol, a treaty signed in1992.
这类市场的计划可以追溯到1992年签署的《京都议定书》。
An arcane technical clause in the Paris agreement then offered a framework for linking existing national or regional markets
《巴黎协定》中的一项晦涩难懂的技术条款为连接现有国家或地区市场提供了框架
and thus creating a new global one that would be administered by the UN and offer access to countries that do not have their own.
并因此建立一个新的全球市场，由联合国管理，并向没有自己市场的国家提供准入。
Delegates in Madrid drew up guidelines for environmentally sound trading principles for this putative market.
在马德里的代表们为这个假定的市场制定了无害环境的贸易原则准则。
What they did not make clear was how all this would connect with what Kyoto had already achieved.
他们没有弄清楚的是，这一切将如何与《京都议定书》已经取得的成果联系起来。
The Kyoto version of carbon markets, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM),
京都版本的碳市场，清洁发展机制（CDM）
let rich countries buy carbon credits from poor countries for carbon-capturing projects that offset their emissions at home.
让富国从穷国购买碳信用额，用于碳捕获项目，以抵消它们国内的碳排放。
Thousands of CDM projects were duly registered, but unknown numbers of credits were lef t unclaimed after their value crashed in 2012,
数千个CDM项目正式注册，但在2012年它们的价值暴跌后，数量不详的碳信用额无人认领，
because demand dried up as a result of rule changes within the EU.
因为欧盟内部规则改变导致需求枯竭。
Some of the main participants in the CDM, chiefly Brazil, want these credits transferred to the Paris scheme.
CDM的一些主要参与国，主要是巴西，希望将这些碳信用额转移到巴黎计划。
But doing so would flood that scheme with "hot air": credits that no longer correspond to real, future reductions in emissions.
但这么做会让那个项目充满“空话”：信用额不再与实际的未来减排相一致。
Done well, international carbon markets could accelerate emissions cuts by drawing in private funds and helping money to flow faster to the cheapest opportunities.
如果做得好，国际碳市场可以通过吸引私人资金和帮助资金更快地流向最廉价的机会来加速减排。
One analysis, by the Environmental Defence Fund, an advocacy group,
宣传小组，美国环保协会的一名分析师发现
found that they might, in theory, reduce the cost of meeting climate targets by between 59% and 79%, assuming most countries participated.
理论上讲，如果大部分国家参与其中，那么它们可能会将实现气候目标的成本降低59%到79%。
If financial gains were reinvested in further climate action, cumulative emissions cuts between2020 and 2035
如果将经济获益再投资于进一步的气候行动，那么2020年到2035年间的累计减排
might be double those currently on the table in national pledges under the Paris agreement.
可能是目前各国根据《巴黎协定》所作承诺的两倍。
All this leaves a lot to do in 2020. Within the UN, technical work on carbon markets will resume in the new year, leading up to next year's meeting, in Glasgow.
所有这些都让2020年有很多事要做。在UN，碳市场的技术工作将于明年恢复，为明年在格拉斯哥举行的会议做准备。
Climate is also on the agenda at an EU-China summit scheduled for September.
气候问题也是9月份中欧峰会的议程之一。
During his presidency, Barack Obama was able to work with China's president, Xi Jinping,
巴拉克•奥巴马在任期间，他可以和中国国家主席习近平合作
and break the stalemate that had previously existed between the world's two largest emitters.
打破世界上两个最大的排放国之间已存在的僵局。
With America set to pull out of the Paris agreement in November, perhaps the European Unioncan step into the gap.
随着美国于11月退出巴黎协议，或许欧盟可以填补这一缺口。
Annual UN climate summits are never moments of unbridled optimism,
每年一度的联合国气候峰会从来不是盲目乐观的时刻，
but this year's, held in Madrid and dubbed COP25, was particularly dispiriting. Its logo was a clock with its hands at a quarter to 12.
但今年在马德里举办的COP25联合国气候峰会尤其令人沮丧。其标志是一个指针指向十二点差一刻的钟。
Midnight duly passed on Friday December 13th—supposedly the summit's last day, and then again on Saturday.
12月13日周五，可能是峰会的最后一天，午夜准时过去了，然后周六又过去了。
Only on Sunday did delegates agree to weak and watered-down commitments to enact previously promised cuts in emissions of greenhouse gases.
到了周日，代表才同意在实施之前承诺的减少温室气体排放方面做出软弱无力的妥协。
And they deferred until next year a decision on regulating a new international carbon market.
他们还将是否建立一个新的国际碳市场的决定推迟到了明年。
In 2015, in Paris, nearly 200 countries promised to stop global warming
2015年，在巴黎，200个国家承诺
before average temperatures rose by more than 1.5-2°C above pre-industrial levels.
在全球平均气温较工业化水平上升1.5-2摄氏度之前阻止全球变暖。
Most climate scientists, though, admit privately that there is little hope of this.
虽然大部分气候科学家私下里承认，这几乎没有希望。
A coalition of governments including the European Union therefore came to Madrid demanding a strongly worded final text
因此，包括欧盟在内的一个政府联盟来到马德里，要求拿出一份措辞强硬的最终文本，
that would urge all countries to promise in 2020 to cut emissions further and faster than agreed so far. That text failed to materialise.
敦促所有国家承诺在2020年进一步、更快地削减碳排放。该文本未能成为现实。
In fact, the real effort on this front came from Brussels, where the EU's leaders, after some wrangling,事实上，在这方面真正的努力来自布鲁塞尔，在那里，欧盟领导人们经过一番争论后
committed themselves on December 12th to reducing emissions to "net zero" by 2050.
于12月12日做出承诺，到2050年将排放量减少到“零排放”。
This means any release of greenhouse gases thereafter will be balanced by the capture of such gases already in the atmosphere by, say, extra afforestation.
这意味着，今后任何温室气体的排放，都将通过额外的植树造林等措施来平衡大气中已经存在的温室气体的捕获。
The European Commission's presidency has published a comprehensive and ambitious,
欧盟委员会主席已为实现这一目标的措施，
if sometimes vague, proposal for measures that would achieve this goal.
发表了一份全面而雄心勃勃的提案，虽然内容模糊。
As part of it, an EU climate law enshrining the 2050 target will be put forward in the spring of2020.
作为措施的一部分，欧盟将在2020年春季提出一项规定2050年目标的气候法律。
Weak and watered-down commitments to enact cuts in emissions of greenhouse gases are nothing new.
制定削减温室气体排放的承诺力度不够并不是什么新鲜事。
What COP25 is really likely to be remembered for, though, is a failure to deal with carbon markets.
COP25真正让人铭记的可能是应对碳市场方面的失败。
Plans for such markets go back to a scheme created by the Kyoto protocol, a treaty signed in1992.
这类市场的计划可以追溯到1992年签署的《京都议定书》。
An arcane technical clause in the Paris agreement then offered a framework for linking existing national or regional markets
《巴黎协定》中的一项晦涩难懂的技术条款为连接现有国家或地区市场提供了框架
and thus creating a new global one that would be administered by the UN and offer access to countries that do not have their own.
并因此建立一个新的全球市场，由联合国管理，并向没有自己市场的国家提供准入。
Delegates in Madrid drew up guidelines for environmentally sound trading principles for this putative market.
在马德里的代表们为这个假定的市场制定了无害环境的贸易原则准则。
What they did not make clear was how all this would connect with what Kyoto had already achieved.
他们没有弄清楚的是，这一切将如何与《京都议定书》已经取得的成果联系起来。
The Kyoto version of carbon markets, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM),
京都版本的碳市场，清洁发展机制（CDM）
let rich countries buy carbon credits from poor countries for carbon-capturing projects that offset their emissions at home.
让富国从穷国购买碳信用额，用于碳捕获项目，以抵消它们国内的碳排放。
Thousands of CDM projects were duly registered, but unknown numbers of credits were lef t unclaimed after their value crashed in 2012,
数千个CDM项目正式注册，但在2012年它们的价值暴跌后，数量不详的碳信用额无人认领，
because demand dried up as a result of rule changes within the EU.
因为欧盟内部规则改变导致需求枯竭。
Some of the main participants in the CDM, chiefly Brazil, want these credits transferred to the Paris scheme.
CDM的一些主要参与国，主要是巴西，希望将这些碳信用额转移到巴黎计划。
But doing so would flood that scheme with "hot air": credits that no longer correspond to real, future reductions in emissions.
但这么做会让那个项目充满“空话”：信用额不再与实际的未来减排相一致。
Done well, international carbon markets could accelerate emissions cuts by drawing in private funds and helping money to flow faster to the cheapest opportunities.
如果做得好，国际碳市场可以通过吸引私人资金和帮助资金更快地流向最廉价的机会来加速减排。
One analysis, by the Environmental Defence Fund, an advocacy group,
宣传小组，美国环保协会的一名分析师发现
found that they might, in theory, reduce the cost of meeting climate targets by between 59% and 79%, assuming most countries participated.
理论上讲，如果大部分国家参与其中，那么它们可能会将实现气候目标的成本降低59%到79%。
If financial gains were reinvested in further climate action, cumulative emissions cuts between2020 and 2035
如果将经济获益再投资于进一步的气候行动，那么2020年到2035年间的累计减排
might be double those currently on the table in national pledges under the Paris agreement.
可能是目前各国根据《巴黎协定》所作承诺的两倍。
All this leaves a lot to do in 2020. Within the UN, technical work on carbon markets will resume in the new year, leading up to next year's meeting, in Glasgow.
所有这些都让2020年有很多事要做。在UN，碳市场的技术工作将于明年恢复，为明年在格拉斯哥举行的会议做准备。
Climate is also on the agenda at an EU-China summit scheduled for September.
气候问题也是9月份中欧峰会的议程之一。
During his presidency, Barack Obama was able to work with China's president, Xi Jinping,
巴拉克•奥巴马在任期间，他可以和中国国家主席习近平合作
and break the stalemate that had previously existed between the world's two largest emitters.
打破世界上两个最大的排放国之间已存在的僵局。
With America set to pull out of the Paris agreement in November, perhaps the European Unioncan step into the gap.
随着美国于11月退出巴黎协议，或许欧盟可以填补这一缺口。
